At the end of April, 2015 we started a review of the adoption cycle of smartwatches, mainly eyeing the marketing of the AppleWatch.

Our goal was to get both marketing data and anecdotal data from people wearing smartwatches to see if we could pinpoint the times early and majority adoption seemed to take place – if they took place at all.

The smartwatch, we felt, offered a unique opportunity to observe the adoption cycle because of it’s physically visible and easily noticed in use.

During the Christmas, we were looking at for an advertising blitz and the possibility that the AppleWatch would be a popular gift item.  Neither happened with significance.

We noted Tim Cook’s comments that the production adoption strategy was going to take place over a much longer cycle than we originally speculated.  They may still be sticking to that story, but nobody’s really sure at this moment.  The marketing push has been moderate, and they’re actively concealing sales numbers for Applewatches.

What we can note is our own anecdotal data and the state of the Applewatch at this point.

A year ago we said by spring, 2017 we’d probably be starting to see trends towards early majority acceptance.  It’s clear at this point that the Applewatch has not caught on at that level, nor are their signs that it will anytime soon.

It’s worth noting that wearable technology for heath tracking (a major feature we noted for the Applewatch) is popular with products like the Fitbit.  This is more a niche audience with specialized need, but it shows a device tracking physiology for fitness data is a feature many want.

But the broader uses of the smartwatch – as it connects to smartphones – does not look to be catching on.

Style is a non-factor.  You don’t have to be wearing an Applewatch to look like you’re in with the latest thing.  On the contrary, you still stand out as an early adopter if you wear one.

Behavior is a non-factor.  People still go to their phones.  It’s still the norm to be gazing into the screen you’re holding in your hands.

Functionality benefits are not enough.  Perhaps the biggest factor with the smartwatch is that it simply isn’t distinct enough from phones to be worth it.  You still need a phone to use the watch, and the small screen on the wrist simply isn’t providing anything essential enough to push early majority adoption.

The conclusion is that at this point, the Applewatch looks to remain an item only popular to brand loyalists and gadget geeks prone to being innovators with new tech.

As Applewatch 2 gets set to release this month, we’ll see if they push things further towards mainstream acceptance.  But it remains a real possibility that smartwatches will be a product that never jumps the gap between innovators and early majority.

Steve Jobs’ shadow looms…