AppleWatch is on track for a long product adoption cycle.

In our series on the product adoption cycle for the AppleWatch, we haven’t noted much that suggests the watch is ready to jump towards majority adoption.  In recent months, the marketing push has been limited to some commercial exposure, with no new apps or functionality being touted.

This commercial is heavily humanistic, with a general tone that the watch will tie “us” closer together.  For the methodical buyer looking for useful functionality, the substance of this commercial is minimal.

Anecdotally, the AppleWatch/smartwatch has not appeared on many new wrists.  I still rarely notice one.

I did have a family member get an AppleWatch as a gift in the early summer.  He is a new tech adopter and gadget lover.  I asked him what he thought of his AppleWatch.  His response was:  It’s a watch.

He noted that he simply didn’t use it much for apps or internet connectivity.  He didn’t say he used it to send romantic messaging to his wife (maybe he should try that…).  He used a golf app recently that told him the yardage on his shot.  Overall, his response was lukewarm.

But Apple may just be getting started.

In this article in the NY Times, the writer notes that Apple plans on a long product adoption cycle where they realize that what will really turn-up the interest in their product may not be evident yet:

Apple’s product debuts tend to follow a well-worn script: A first-generation device is always criticized as overpriced and a bit lacking in utility and is often vulnerable to the charge that it is a solution in search of a problem. Then, over a few years, Apple and its customers figure out the best uses for the gadget, and the company methodically improves design and functionality to meet those needs. It also tends to lower its prices. Correspondingly, sales explode.

Tim Cook stated that he is happy with the AppleWatch’s current position.  No doubt what he means is that the initial lag is expected.  In truth, the best uses for the AppleWatch are yet to be discovered, and the prices are not inviting for the majority.

But in a year or two, if a new functionality develops for wearable devices like smartwatches, early majority interest may start to spike.  Then they start selling them for $59.99 instead of $500, and it’s a different picture.

This is a plan that only companies like Apple, with deep pockets and the ability to innovate a product over years, can attempt.  Initially in this series, we gave Apple a year to move towards majority adoption, but it seems their marketing strategy may go beyond that time frame.

What we know at this time is that the best uses for this particular gadget have yet to emerge.  Perhaps they will.  Or perhaps smartwatches will get passed-over in technology’s rapid race forward.  If so, the wristwatch may become a relic.