There is some old career advice that says you should:
Picture where you want to be in 10 years.
Let’s reverse that. Picture where you were 10 years ago. Back then, could you have envisioned the opportunities that exist for you now? Could you have foreseen how technology would effect the way you work and connect with others?
Not a chance. Which is why the advice of looking 10 years ahead to “visualize” career success is outdated.
Any entrepreneur starting a new venture now must do one thing:
Be explicit about the assumptions and hypotheses in your business planning.
Because the world today, both in business and culturally, changes so quickly that concrete planning for ten years ahead is futile.
You can make assumptions about the future. You can hypothesize about what the technological and marketing landscapes will be like.
The key is to be explicit about how your view is hypothetical. Confusing assumptions with facts is disastrous in the world of rapid digital transformation.
The Will to Risk
Taking risks tends to get a bad rap. We associate it with lost money, trips to the hospital, and getting caught with our “hand in the cookie jar”.
But given that you can only make assumptions about what will happen with your start-up, risk is inherent. You cannot be a entrepreneur without the will to take risks.
When you are explicit about your assumptions, you do something important. You make risk taking intelligent.
A risk that’s going to kill you or put you out on the street should be avoided. But facing the ever altering future of business technology is a risk you must embrace if you want to start a business.
Always in Beta
With online marketing, we continually test. The idea of creating a campaign that will work in perpetuity isn’t even considered.
“Always in beta” is a necessary underpinning of the modern business plan. It’s driven by consumer behavior and the connection to technology.
Today, most consumers have “IT” that’s more powerful than the typical business network. They circumvent brand advertising and connect directly to those with relevant messages.
Who knows what doors mobile technology will open up in the next few years.
So change the adage:
Picture where you want to be in six months.
Then make a sensible, sound hypothesis. You can still plan ahead, but only as far as any reasonable assumption will allow.
You should move forward with your start-up plans, but only if you embrace the inherent risks.
We live in interesting times. Think about it. Do you really want to be able to predict were you’ll be in 10 years?