There are few mistakes in starting a business more damaging than to conflate certainty with certitude.

In the fun, scary, energized period when a start-up is gearing-up, you feel certitude in your future success.  You’re confident, hard working, and you believe in what you’re doing.

But your feeling that you’ll be successful is separate from the certainty of that success.

As separate as the space between supply and demand.

Just because you have the supply doesn’t mean it’s certain there’s a demand.

Certitude happens when you get self-involved in what you supply.  It’s easy to become enamored with your own business idea, the way a parent is with their child.  Most parents feel certitude about their child’s future success, but that certainty is always up in the air.

Certitude has the advantage of being flexible.  When you’re certain a particular plan is going to work, you resist changing course when needed.   A strong – but not static – belief in a plan let’s you admit your mistakes.  And you learn from them, which is critical to marketing success.

Worse is delusional certitude, like the soft mentality of the alcoholic.  Inflated self-esteem.  Or the asinine confidence of the cocaine high.  Every problem can be overcome.

Until the buzz ends.

Be wary of your own success buzz when you start your business.  Certitude is a belief that reflects your experience.  An internalized view of your offer.

But it’s the reality of the market space that decides what it wants.  You can influence it, but it’s (almost) certain that it won’t be based on exactly what you supply.