Is the Apple Watch set to become the ugly tie of gift giving?

Obfuscation of sales numbers is not a good sign.

As we continue our look at the product adoption cycle of smart watches and specifically the Apple Watch, indications are this product may never make the leap from innovators to early majority.

Recent reports on sales numbers for the Apple Watch are rendered intentionally unclear by Apple.  According to CNN money, Apple places Apple Watch sales number into a broader category that includes other niche product lines like the iPod and iTV.

Yet that same article quotes Apple CEO Tim Cook as saying he’s satisfied with where sales are at the moment, stating:  “Our objective wasn’t primarily sales; we’re more excited about how the product is positioned for the long term.”

Apparently Apple is looking to the 2015 holiday season as the time in which they expect to see sales that reflect a move to early majority adoption for smart watches.

Data from analytics firm Slice Data offers more specifics, which show recent sales for the Apple Watches have plummeted.  Data shows that from April to July, sales of the Apple Watch dropped from 35k a day to 5k a day.

In the framework of the product adoption cycle, this indicates that the style, behavior and functionality aspects of the watch are failing to capture much attention.  What Cook and Apple seem unprepared to comment on is that smart watches – up to now – have failed ignite a trend that would send the watch into the early adoption sales phase.  Behind closed doors, they must be analyzing this as a problem.

As noted previously, you can use personal observation of this highly visible product to develop anecdotal marketing data.  For example, I traveled through Heathrow Airport in London in mid-July.  The terminal was packed with international travelers checking their mobile phones.  In 3 hours, passing thousands of people, I didn’t see one person “engaged” on a smart watch.  In a 3 week trip to Europe, I didn’t notice one person wearing a smart watch.

Mobile phones are everywhere – present in people’s hands or attached to “selfie sticks” to an annoying degree (there is something sad about seeing a couple sit down at an open, seaside cafe, then have their attention disappear into mobile phone screens, or watching tourists miss the mystery of Prague as they endlessly take pictures of themselves), but watches were absent.

Holiday shopping will come, and no doubt it will push Apple Watch sales up.  Maybe then they’ll provide accurate sales data.

However, in the history of consumerism, no product that costs more than five bucks ever jumped to majority adoption levels solely as a gift for someone whom you “didn’t know what else to get”.

Every dad has a tie, given as a gift, that they didn’t ask for or want.  It eventually disappears into the back of the closet.

If desperate holiday shoppers become the main target audience for the Apple Watch, it seems a weak long-term positioning strategy.